How do ceasefire agreements shape the trajectory of violence in civil war zones? Under what conditions do they stop the killing, and when do they open up new front lines and trigger shifts in the actors, forms, and locations of violence instead? Despite the importance attributed to ceasefires by international peacemakers, few studies have systematically tested their impact on the severity and nature of violence in conflict societies, and there is no current global dataset on ceasefires to do so. This project fills this gap in research on violence during peace processes.
This project is a collaboration with Govinda Clayton at ETH Zürich. As an important part of the project, we are involved in a collaborative effort (together with PRIO in Norway) to create a global dataset of all ceasefires in civil wars between 1989 and 2020.
The current step-motherly treatment of ceasefires in academia defies their importance in actual peace processes: Ceasefires are one of the first stages at which peace processes fail, and violence is the primary culprit. Ceasefire violence therefore not only kills, but it may significantly reduce the chances of an eventual resolution of the conflict. In this project we therefore aim to generate knowledge on how ceasefire violence can be prevented and mitigated in order to increase the chances that ceasefires are a first step towards lasting peace.
Bara, Corinne and Govinda Clayton. One War at a Time? Ceasefires and the Diffusion of Civil Violence [Work in Progress]
Bara, Corinne and Govinda Clayton. Friend or Foe? Ceasefires and Inter-Rebel Violence [Work in progress]