Publications

My research focuses on the dynamics of violence during and after armed conflict. I am particularly interested in how violence transforms in response to peace operations and ceasefire agreements, which are my two key areas of subject expertise. To capture relevant shifts in violence I look at a wide range of armed actors beyond the main combatants, such as militia groups, private military and security companies, mercenaries, and communal groups. I use computational methods to disentangle the spatial and temporal dynamics of violence: When and where exactly does violence escalate or shift, and what does this tell us about actors’ motivations and constraints?


Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

Bara, Corinne and Govinda Clayton (2022) Your Reputation Precedes You: Ceasefires and Cooperative Credibility During Civil Conflict, Journal of Conflict Resolution, online first. Doi:10.1177/0022002722112672.

UN Photo / Martine Perret

Ceasefires involving the conflict government can have positive repercussions beyond the parties who sign them, at times encouraging other rebels in the country to sign ceasefires in turn or deescalate fighting. We believe this is because states who enter into and honor ceasefires develop a cooperative reputation that other rebel groups look to when deciding on whether to cease fire.

Open Access!


Clayton, G.; H.M. Nygård; H. Strand; S.A. Rustad; C. Wiehler; T. Sagård; P. Landsverk; R. Ryland; V. Sticher; E. Wink; C. Bara (2022) Introducing the ETH/PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefire Dataset, Journal of Conflict Resolution, online first. Doi:10.1177/00220027221129183.

UN Photo / Martine Perret

Introduction to the first global dataset on ceasefires in civil wars, 1989-2020. In total, the data include more than 2000 ceasefires across 66 countries and 109 conflicts, ranging from verbal arrangements to detailed written agreements. The data provide an empirical basis to assess the conditions that give rise to ceasefires, how ceasefires affect the dynamics of violence, and the role of a ceasefire in the peace process.

Open Access!


Bara, Corinne and Joakim Kreutz (2022) To Buy a War but Sell the Peace? Mercenaries and Post-Civil War Stability, Security Studies 31(3): 417-445.

What are the long-term consequences of the use of private military and security companies (PMSCs) and mercenaries in civil wars? In this article, we show that when PMSCs have taken part in combat, the risk that civil war resumes is greater. Though the actual PMSC forces may withdraw as their contract ends, the legacy of their use will accentuate uncertainty in the postwar society.

Open Access!


Bara, Corinne; Annekatrin Deglow & Sebastian van Baalen (2021) Civil War Recurrence and Postwar Violence: Toward an Integrated Research Agenda, European Journal of International Relations 27(3): 913-935.

In this paper we use citation network analysis to show that research on war recurrence and postwar violence happens in distinct scholarly communities. We advocate for a more integrated study of different forms of violence after war, and present an analytical framework to give a boost to such research… and some research ideas! The framework also works for violence during war, where different forms of political violence are also mostly studied in isolation rather their interrelationships.

Open Access!


Bara, Corinne; Govinda Clayton & Siri Aas Rustad (2021) Understanding Ceasefires, International Peacekeeping 28(3): 329-340.

Photo by: Maurice Schumann

This is the introduction to our Special Issue on ceasefire agreements, featuring insights by researchers, practitioners, and policymakers on how we can better understand and design ceasefires.

Open Access!


Bara, Corinne & Lisa Hultman (2020) Just Different Hats? Comparing UN and Non-UN Peacekeeping, International Peacekeeping 27(3): 341-368.

Regional peacekeeping operations are equally effective as the UN in mitigating violence against civilians by governments, but not by rebels/militias. New data, and Open Access!
Replication Data


Bara, Corinne (2020) Shifting targets: the effect of peacekeeping on postwar violence, European Journal of International Relations 26(4): 979-1003.

Photo by: MONUSCO

UN Police are essential in mitigating various forms of violence in the aftermath of war, while UN troops struggle to contain violence by armed actors other than the former combatants. Open Access!
Replication Data


Bara, Corinne (2018) Legacies of Violence: Conflict-specific Capital and the Post-conflict Diffusion of Civil War, Journal of Conflict Resolution 62(9)

This article won the 2019 NEPS MEDAL for the best publication in Peace Science.

An UZI 9-mm submarine gun and AK-47 assault rifles seized during the multi-service, multinational Operation urgent fury

Civil wars are most likely to spread to neighboring countries after their termination at home as a sudden surplus of weapons, combatants, and rebel leaders has the potential to destabilize the neighborhood.
Replication Data /
Read if you have no JCR access


Bara, Corinne (2014) Incentives and Opportunities: A Complexity-oriented Explanation of Violent Ethnic Conflict, Journal of Peace Research 51(6)

This article won the 2014 Nils Petter Gleditsch JPR Article of the Year Award. Read the Jury Announcement.

Publications Corinne Bara peer-reviewed articles

In this article I bridge the gap between incentive- and opportunity-oriented explanations of conflict onset by looking at the complex interplay of both to map multiple paths to ethnic conflict.
Replication Data /
Read if you have no JPR access
Blog post: Abandon the greed-grievance debate

Book Chapters

Bara, Corinne (2020) Forecasting Civil War and Political Violence, in: A. Wenger, U. Jasper & M. Dunn Cavelty: The Politics and Science of Prevision: Governing and Probing the Future. Abingdon: Routledge, pp. 177-193.

publications Corinne Bara book chapter prediction forecasting

In this book chapter I offer an accessible overview of efforts to predict civil wars and other forms of political violence, with critical reflections on the policy impact and ethical implications of forecasting. Open Access!

PhD Thesis

Bara, Corinne (2016) The Onset and Diffusion of Civil War: Complexity and Temporal Dynamics (2016). Doctoral Thesis, ETH Zürich.

The dissertation contributes to comparative civil war research by theorizing and modeling aspects of complexity and temporal dynamics so far neglected in research on conflict onset and spread.