Ceasefires and civilian targeting: new evidence

Corinne Bara and Maurice P. Schumann (2026) Ceasefires and Civilian Targeting in Civil War, Journal of Peace Research, Online First: https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag068.

Do ceasefire agreements live up to the hopes placed in them to alleviate civilian suffering? We find they can. Besides reducing battlefield fighting, they tend to reduce civilian targeting. This, however, mostly happens when at least one side receives military support, especially from states that care about how their protégés behave. That is somewhat surprising, because external support is usually bad news for conflict dynamics; during ceasefires, though, it seems to create leverage for restraint. Our evidence suggests that reputation and increased international scrutiny are part of the reason why.

Open Access!