In a Special Issue in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, we present the first global dataset on ceasefire agreements, and a host of research using this new resource.

Corinne Bara, November 2022

When and why are ceasefire agreements signed? Once they are in place, what makes them hold? How do they affect the dynamics of violence in the war zone? And in what way do they ultimately shape, a peace process?

Until now, systematic comparative research on these questions was limited by a lack of data on ceasefire agreements. In a Special Issue in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, we present the first comprehensive global dataset on ceasefire agreements in civil wars between 1989 and 2020. The data list more than 2000 ceasefires across 66 countries and 109 civil wars, ranging from verbal arrangements to detailed written agreements.

Most of the remaining articles of the Special Issue, not all of which are online yet, use this novel resource to analyse the determinants and consequences of these ceasefire agreements using statistical methods. These are:

Clayton, G., Nygård, H. M., Rustad, S. A., & Strand, H.: Ceasefires in Civil Conflict: A Research Agenda.

Introduction to the Special Issue

Bara, C. & Clayton, C.: Your Reputation Precedes You: Ceasefires and Cooperative Credibility During Civil Conflict.

Research article showing that ceasefires across conflicts are interdependent. When states enter into a ceasefire with one rebel group, that increases the likelihood that other rebels in the same country sign ceasefire agreements or de-escalate violence.

Clayton, G., Nygård, H. M., Rustad, S. A., & Strand, H. (2022). Costs and Cover: Explaining the Onset of Ceasefires in Civil Conflict.

Research article showing some factors that make ceasefires more likely. Specifically, conflict parties are more likely to cease fire when the conflict costs are greater, i.e., when violence is intense; there are higher levels of ‘collateral damage’; and the parties lack international support. They are also more likely to cease fire when the audience costs of doing so are lower.

More articles to follow as they are published online…