Publications

My research focuses on armed conflict within states. While I wrote my dissertation about the conditions under which civil wars start and spread to neighboring countries, I now increasingly study the use of violence in these wars. I am particularly interested in how violence transforms in response to changes in actors’ strategic environment both during war and in the postwar period, and what impact external interventions (such as peacekeeping) have on the violent tactics of armed actors. To capture relevant shifts in violence I look at a wide range of armed actors beyond the main combatants, such as militia groups, private military and security companies, mercenaries, and communal groups. My work is primarily quantitative-comparative and aims to disentangle the spatial and temporal dynamics of violence: When and where exactly does violence escalate or shift, and what does this tell us about actors’ motivations and constraints?


Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

Bara, Corinne (2018) Legacies of Violence: Conflict-specific Capital and the Post-conflict Diffusion of Civil War, Journal of Conflict Resolution 62(9)

This article won the 2019 NEPS MEDAL for the best publication in Peace Science.

An UZI 9-mm submarine gun and AK-47 assault rifles seized during the multi-service, multinational Operation urgent fury

Civil wars are most likely to spread to neighboring countries after their termination at home as a sudden surplus of weapons, combatants, and rebel leaders has the potential to destabilize the neighborhood.
Replication Data /
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Bara, Corinne (2014) Incentives and Opportunities: A Complexity-oriented Explanation of Violent Ethnic Conflict, Journal of Peace Research 51(6)

This article won the 2014 Nils Petter Gleditsch JPR Article of the Year Award. Read the Jury Announcement.

Publications Corinne Bara peer-reviewed articles

In this article I bridge the gap between incentive- and opportunity-oriented explanations of conflict onset by looking at the complex interplay of both to map multiple paths to ethnic conflict.
Replication Data /
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Blog post: Abandon the greed-grievance debate

Book Chapters

Bara, Corinne (forthcoming) Forecasting Civil War and Political Violence, in: Jasper, U., M. Dunn Cavelty & A. Wenger: The Possibilities and Pitfalls of Prediction: Academic Contributions to Future-Oriented Policy-Making. Routledge

publications Corinne Bara book chapter prediction forecasting

In this book chapter I review efforts to predict civil wars and other forms of political violence. A special focus lies on the epistemological foundations, policy impact and ethical implications of forecasting.

PhD Thesis

Bara, Corinne (2016) The Onset and Diffusion of Civil War: Complexity and Temporal Dynamics (2016). Doctoral Thesis, ETH Z├╝rich.

The dissertation contributes to comparative civil war research by theorizing and modeling aspects of complexity and temporal dynamics so far neglected in research on conflict onset and spread (embargoed until Jan 2020).